A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
